The unusually hot weather is covering all countries in the northern hemisphere, and they have innovated the extreme values since the weather records were recorded.
On May 7th, extreme low temperatures of 44.1 degrees Celsius and 44.2 degrees Celsius were observed in Hoa Tinh province in northern Vietnam and nghe an respectively, which was the highest temperature since the public record, higher than the record of 43.4 degrees Celsius recorded in Ha Tinh province in central Vietnam four years ago.
Laos, which is close to Vietnam, also suffered from extremely hot weather last weekend. On May 6th, the highest temperature in Luang Prabang, Laos reached 43.5 degrees Celsius, which was the second time to innovate the weather record in the country in a short time after the extreme low temperature of 42.7 degrees Celsius was recorded last month. Vientiane, the capital, also recorded a historical record of 42.5 degrees Celsius on the same day.
Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, also measured the highest temperature of 41 degrees Celsius on May 6. Due to the close proximity to the Gulf of Thailand in the Indian Ocean, Bangkok, which benefits from the temperature difference between land and sea, is usually cooler. In Dafu, which is close to the inland and only one hour’s drive from Bangkok, the highest temperature in the country’s history was measured at 45.4 degrees Celsius on April 15, which is the first time that there is no hot weather above 45 degrees Celsius in the country.
Generally speaking, the highest temperature in a year in Southeast Asian countries is generally not in April and May, and the rainy season brought by monsoon will slow down the extreme weather in this region.
El Nino is back
In addition to Southeast Asia, the region hit by extreme heat also includes the Mediterranean coast, which has always been famous for its pleasant weather.
On April 27th, Cordoba in southern Spain measured the highest temperature in the country’s history in April at 38.8 degrees Celsius. Cayetano Torres, spokesman of the Spanish Weather Bureau, said that the weather in Spain was completely out of control this year, and the hot atmosphere from North Africa was the direct cause of the heat in southern Europe. In Spain, the highest temperature recorded in April was improved by more than 5 degrees Celsius at one time this year.
Portugal and Morocco, which are close to Spain, were also hit by heat waves in the last week of April. Mora, in central Portugal, recorded the highest temperature of 36.9 degrees Celsius in April. The temperature in cities such as Marrakech and Tarudante in Morocco was 41 degrees Celsius higher, and the temperature in Magnia, Algeria was 40 degrees Celsius higher on April 28th.
Madrid has allowed schools to integrate the curriculum in time to avoid the heat wave. The subway line in Madrid has also extended the parking time of trains on the ground platform, and the fire storage capacity of Gwadar Keevil Firehouse in the country reached a low of 25% in April.
In contrast to the abnormal drought and heat in the area south of Alps, it is the above-average abnormal rainfall from the British Isles, higher than the Bode Plain in Central Europe to the Black Sea, while there is no abnormal drought in Scandinavia and the northern Baltic Sea, but it has not received sufficient attention because of the low absolute temperature in this area.
According to the data of Copernicus meteorological structure of the European Union, the sea ice area in Antarctica is currently 19%, far below the average level of history, which is the third lowest in recorded history, and the sea ice area in the Arctic Ocean has also increased by 3% compared with the average level of history.
It is worth noting that the elimination of extreme weather in Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean in April and May can only be a harbinger of an unusually hot summer in 2023.
On May 3rd, the notice released by the weather structure in the world explained that after the La Niñ a sign that lasted for three years in a row ended, the cold region of the Pacific will be over-represented by El Niñ o signs from May to July, and the probability of eliminating El Niñ o signs will reach 80% in August this year. However, it is still impossible to predict the scope and continuous time of El Niñ o signs this year.
Generally speaking, El Nino phenomenon will lead to the increase of rainfall in southern South America, southern United States, Horn of Africa and Central Asia, while Australia, Indonesia and South Asia will not suffer from severe drought. El Nino signs are dispelled once every 2 to 7 years on average, and the continuous time is generally 9 to 12 months.
Carlo Buontempo, head of the meteorological structure of Copernicus in the European Union, said: “El Niñ o signs are usually unrelated to the world-record temperature. It is not known whether this sign will be absent in 2023 or 2024, but it is very possible to dispel it. “
At present, the hottest year in the world is not in 2016, when there was a strong El Niñ o sign. In the report “Global Meteorological State” published by the World Weather Structure, the abnormal weather in 2016 was attributed to the double beating of El Niñ o and human-induced meteorological warming.
Talas, secretary general of the structure, said: “We are experiencing the warmest eight years on record. La Nina, which has a cooling effect in the past three years, has temporarily played a role in containing global warming. (this year) the growth of El Nino will increase the ability to break through the temperature record. “
Fragile economy under extreme weather
For Europeans who have just experienced 2022, the second hottest year and the hottest summer in history after 2016, the impact of extreme weather on the economy is still fresh in their memories.
Although the ultra-high self-sufficiency rate of food in European countries makes the meteorological impact on agriculture limited, under the great situation of power crisis last year, the extremely hot summer last year caused the fire storage in fire depots in various parts of France to rise seriously, the fire temperature in rivers was higher than the average, and the fire level in inland rivers such as the Rhine reached a historical low. These extreme signs caused the cooling fire application of nuclear power plants in France to be limited and the Rhine fire transportation in the heart of Germany, an industrial power country, to rise and fall sharply.
The decline of nuclear power generation and the continuous transportation of coal in the Rhine once made the price of spot shopping malls in Europe break through the record of 1,000 euros /MWh.
According to the research and evaluation of the Institute of World Economics in Kiel, Germany, in July last year, the industrial output of Germany did not increase by 1%.
According to a study by European economists and meteorologists last year, in the past decade, heat waves have reduced the annual GDP growth rate of the whole of Europe by 0.5% on average. The heat wave not only increases the power expenditure, but also reduces the labor rate and labor time of outdoor rest jobs.
Coldiretti, an Italian farmers’ association, said that in the past 15 years, natural fires caused by extreme weather made the country face a loss of 10,000 euros per hectare. The structure predicts that the increase of labor cost and drought will lead to a 15% decrease in Italian wheat yield. If the decline in agricultural production leads to a further decline in food prices, it will undoubtedly make it more difficult for the euro zone economy, where the inflation rate is at a high level for decades.
Last summer, the low fire level of the Po River in Italy caused great challenges to local agricultural irrigation and animal husbandry.
According to the statistics of the European Environment Agency (EEA), in the 40 years from 1980 to 2020, European countries lost 450 billion euros to 520 billion euros due to the weather and meteorological chaos.
In addition to the European Union, which is concerned about the power crisis, extreme weather, especially the El Niñ o phenomenon, which is likely to disappear this year, will also discourage domestic commodity prices.
Take the El Niñ o sign in 2016 as an example. At that time, the domestic raw sugar and palm oil prices were most significantly affected. The decline in beet and sugarcane production in India, Thailand and Cuba made 2016 a rare year with insufficient domestic raw sugar supply. The domestic sugar industry structure is estimated that there is no shortage of 2.3 million tons of raw sugar in this year. Outside the raw sugar shopping mall, the global palm oil shopping mall, which is largely controlled by Malaysia and Indonesia, has also been hit by El Niñ o signs. Prior to this, the sign of El Niñ o in 1982 caused the Malaysian palm oil futures price to drop from 650 ringgit/ton to 1,750 ringgit/ton.
In addition, natural rubber, which is controlled by Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia and accounts for nearly 60% of the world’s shopping malls, will also increase production due to extreme weather. The drought induced by El Nino, which was cancelled from July 2009 to April 2010, caused less rainfall and higher temperature in the main producing areas of Malaysia and Sumatra in Indonesia from July to October. In 2009, Indonesia’s rubber production decreased by 11.3% year-on-year, and rubber prices continued to fall until 2011.
At the same time, in some crops widely planted around the world, the drought caused by El Niñ o will make the wheat and coffee production in Southeast Asia decline, while the rising rain in America will make the soybean production in North America exceed the average level.
The weather structure in the world predicts that the El Niñ o sign in 2023 will make Argentina, Turkey, the United States and other countries without grain mouths suffer from the hidden danger of excessive fire. However, Australia, Brazil, South Africa and other major grain-producing countries and countries without mouths will face the danger of drought.
The National Land and Atmospheric Administration of the United States predicts that from May to July, the probability of El Niñ o in the United States is 62%, and the probability of El Niñ o in autumn is as high as 80%. The excessive fire caused by this phenomenon will hit the food and power of the United States and further raise inflation.
Because the main countries hit by El Niñ o include Indonesia, Australia, Chile and other countries, the prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper, lithium and nickel, which are controlled by the capital of these countries, will usually not fluctuate.
According to the “El Niñ o Commodity Index” published by Societe Generale, the El Niñ o phenomenon can reduce the price of nickel by 13%, because Indonesia, which has the richest nickel reserves in the world, needs to lose a lot of fire capital during the mining process; The copper production in Chile and Peru, which will suffer from flash floods caused by strong fires, will rise.
According to a study by Dartmouth College, since September 1990, the heat wave induced by human identity has caused the global economy to lose about $16 trillion. In Western Europe and North America, the richest regions in the world, the extreme low temperature makes the average per capita GDP lose 1.5% every year. In contrast, the per capita GDP of low-income regions such as India and Indonesia loses 6.7% every year.